The recently released National Association of Realtors report for September Existing Homes showed sales rose for the first time since July 2003 as compared to a year earlier. Good news right? Not so fast.

Keep in mind that this report reflects homes that actually closed in September 2008 which means that the homes went under contract in July and August. This was before the massive real estate slowdown which hit when the finacial markets went into turmoil in September.

When the reports come out that reflect our current October 2008 real estate market, the headline will most likely read “Largest drop since the records have been kept!” or “45-50% drop shocks the market”. The news media is better than I am in creating sensational headlines but you get the idea. These ugly reports will come in the following order: the October pending sales report due out on November 7th, October new home sales on November 26th and November existing home sales due on December 23rd.

These sales reports will all reflect what you can see in real time on the Alphahomes Sales Trends page. I report pending sales so you get a view of how the market is doing now. I keep the figures regularly updated so check them often to keep up with the real estate market in Alpharetta and Johns Creek, GA. Since it is near the end of October it is safe to say that our sales will show a drop of about 50% over October last year and September of this year. Read the rest of this entry »

These days I am often asked when the housing market will start to improve. Of course being me I have a few opinions. First though we must recognize what got us into this mess before we can understand how to get out.

Quite simply this was caused by a confluence of the following factors:

• Loose loan qualification standards driven primarily by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guidelines
• Low interest rates that helped fuel the dramatic rise in home values giving the impression that fantastic profits could be made safely by short term real estate ownership
• Investors and owner occupant home buyers that purchased homes as investments without considering the reality that homes prices don’t always go up
• Lenders that were more than happy to originate loans to anybody that could spell their name correctly two out of three times
• Buyers that were willing to use creative loan programs designed to get them into homes that were really more than they could comfortably afford Read the rest of this entry »

Sometimes it just takes a little perspective to help us understand that what we thought was tough was really quite good in comparison. Alpharetta and Johns Creek home sales in August 2008 were the lowest I can ever remember. We probably would have to go back to the time when this area was just horse pastures to find a month that had so few homes sales. Read the rest of this entry »

When considering the homes for sale in my primary coverage area (East of GA 400), I have seen a pretty dramatic shift. It’s normal to see some slow-down in August. People are settling in and children are returning to school. The push to get moved during the summer months, to reduce the disruption to family routines, has passed once the fall arrives.

Historically, there has been a seasonal drop of 20%. This year the August figures for the lower price ranges (under $350K) plummeted 39%. Let’s take a closer look:

• Homes under $200K 14 houses sold in May, 9 in June, and 18 in July dropped to 3 last month.
• $200-275K homes sold at a rate of 35 in May, 28 in June, 15 in July and remained steady at 15 for August.
• $275-350K houses sold 25 in May, 22 in June, 26 in July and 18 in August.

The higher price ranges were also lower:

• $350-450K houses sold 25 in May, 29 in June, 29 in July and went to 12 houses sold in August.
• $450-600K houses sold 15 in August, down from 16 in May, 20 in June and 31 in July.

Inventories are running from flat to slightly down. This means that there are some sellers who are giving up and removing the “for sale” signs from their front yard.

Desiring a new house isn’t reason enough to sell today. It’s much harder to sell the existing house before buying a new home and this is a requirement for most would-be buyers.

My recommendation at this point, is if you don’t have to sell right now… don’t.

The market has been fairly unchanged in the past 30-60 days, but there are a few hopeful signs that an improvement may be on the horizon.

June 2007 vs. June 2008 figures:

• Under $275K, there was a 14% decrease in sales as compared to June 2007 and the current inventory reflects a 46.1% increase in the supply of homes over the figures for this same time last year.
• $275-600K, we have experienced a 26% drop in sales as compared to last year, with the inventory up 40%.
• $600K+ price range has experienced a 50% drop with a 108% increase in inventory which represents a 21-month supply of homes now.

Although comparisons to last year seem rather dismal, June 2008 figures (for mid-range homes from $275K-600K) show an increase of 7.5% over last month and the total inventory dropped by 5.2%. This is a trend we hope will continue. The lower and higher ranges did not fare as well.

It feels like the market was a bit more vibrant at the end of June, and I hope that will continue into this new month. Personally, I’m happy to report an increase in activity with my own listings and showings.

Please note: When I report data, I’m giving you information on what’s gone under contract within the past month — so my figures for this area are more up-to-date than the national data you see reported in the news. Why? National figures for existing home sales data typically lag the market by 30-60 days because they report only closed sales, not those under contract.

Visit my sales trends section to learn more about local home sales.